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Home : Article
IndexReading a Chart and Acting Effectively
It's a guide that tells you, in simple understandable
language, how to choose the right charts, reading these
charts correctly, and act effectively in the market from
what you see on these charts. Probably most of you have
taken a course or studied the use of charts in the past.
This should add to your knowledge about choosing the
right carts and reading these charts correctly. There are
several good charting packages available free. I use and
what I recommend you "Netdania".
Using Charts
Effectively
The default number of periods on these charts is 300.
This is a good starting point;
- Hourly chart that's about 12 days of data.
- 15 minute chart its 3 days of data.
- 5-minute chart it's slightly more than 24 hours
of data.
You can create multiple "tabs" or "layouts"
so that it's easy to quickly switch between charts or
sets of charts.
What to Look at First
Firstly, glance at hourly chart to see the big picture.
Note significant support and resistance levels within 2of
today's opening rate.
Secondly, study the 15 minute chart in great detail
noting the following:
- Prevailing trend
- Current price in relation to the 60 period simple
moving average.
- High and low since GMT 00:00
- Tops and bottoms during full 3 day time period.
How to
Use The Information Gathered So Far
Determine The Big Picture (for intraday trading)
Glancing at the hourly chart will give you the big
picture - up or down. If it's not clear immediately then
you're in a trading range. Lets assume the trend is down.
Determine If The 15 Minute Chart Confirms The
Downtrend Indicated by Big Picture
Current price on 15-minute chart should be below 60
period moving average and the moving average line should
be sloping down. If this is so then you have established
the direction of the prevailing trend to be down. There
are always two trends - a prevailing (major) trend and a
minor trend. The minor trend is a reversal of the main
trend, which lasts for a short period of time. Minor
trends are clearly spotted on 5-minute charts.
Determine The Current Trend (major or minor) From The
5 Minute Chart
Current price on 5-minute chart is below 60 period
moving average and the moving average line is sloping
downward - major trend. Current price on 5-minute chart
is above 60 period moving average and the moving average
line is sloping upward - minor trend.
At this point you know the following:
Direction of the prevailing trend. Whether we are
currently trading in the direction of the prevailing (major)
trend or experiencing a minor trend (reaction to major
trend).
Possible Trade Scenarios
- Lets assume prevailing (major) trend is down and
we are in a minor up-trend. Strategy would be to
sell when the current price on 5-minute chart
falls below the 60 period moving average and the
60 period moving average line is sloping downward.
Why? Because the prevailing trend is reasserting
itself and the next move is likely to be down. Is
there more we can do? Yes. Look for further
confirmation. For example, if the minor trend had
stalled for a while and the lows of the past half
hour or hour are very close to the 5 minute
moving average then selling just below the lows
of the past half hour is a better place to enter
the market then just below the moving average
line.
- Lets assume prevailing (major) trend is down and
5-minute chart confirms downtrend. Strategy would
be to wait for a minor (up trend) trend to appear
and reverse before entering the market. The
reason for this is that the move is too "mature"
at this point and a correction is likely. Since
you trade with tight stops you will be stopped
out on a reaction. Exception: If market trades
through today's low and/ or low of past three
days (these levels will be apparent on the 15
minute chart) further quick downward price action
is likely and a short position would be correct.
- A better strategy assuming prevailing trend down,
5-minute chart down, and just above days lows is
to BUY with a tight stop below the day's low.
Your risk is limited and defined and the
technical condition (overdone?) is in your favor.
Confirmation would be if today's low was a bit
higher than yesterday's low and the price action
indicated a very short-term trading range (1
minute chart) just above today's low. The
thinking here is that buyers are not waiting for
a break of today's or yesterday's low to buy
cheaper; they are concerned they may not see the
level.
- Generally speaking, the safest place to buy is
after a sustained significant decline when the
bottoms are getting higher. Preferably these
bottoms will be hours apart. By the third or
forth higher bottom it is clear a bottom is in
place and an up-move is coming. As in the example
above your risk is limited and defined - a low
lower than the last low.
- The reverse is true in major up-trends.
Other Chart Ideas
- There are always two trends to consider - a major
trend and a minor trend. The minor trend is a
reversal of the major trend, which generally
lasts for a short period of time.
- Buying above old tops and selling below old
bottoms can be excellent entry levels; assuming
the move is not overly mature and a nearby
reaction unlikely.
- When a strong up move is occurring the market
should make both higher tops and higher bottoms.
The reverse is true for down moves- lower bottoms
and lower tops.
- Reactions (minor reversals) are smaller when a
strong move is occurring. As the reactions begin
to increase that is a clear warning signal that
the move is losing momentum. When the last
reaction exceeds the prior reaction you can
assume the trend has changed, at least
temporarily.
- Higher bottoms always indicate strength, and an
up move usually starts from the third or fourth
higher bottom. Reverse this rule in a rising
market; lower tops...
- You will always make the most money by following
the major trend although to say you will never
trade against the trend means that you will miss
a lot of opportunities to make big profits. The
rule is: When you are trading against the trend
wait until you have a definite indication of a
selling or buying point near the top or bottom,
where you can place a close stop loss order (risk
small amount of capital). The profit target can
be a short-term gain to nearby resistance or more.
- Consider the normal or average daily range,
average price change from open to high and
average price change from open to low, in
determining your intra-day price targets.
- Do not overlook the fact that it requires time
for a market to get ready at the bottom before it
advances and for selling pressure to work it's
way through at top before a decline. Smaller
loses and sideways trading are a sign the trend
may be waning in a downtrend. Smaller gains and
sideways trading in an up trend.
- Fourth time at bottom or top is crucial; next
phase of move will soon become clear... Be ready.
- Oftentimes, when an important support or
resistance level is broken a quick move occurs
followed by a reaction back to or slightly above
support or below resistance. This is a great
opportunity to play the break on the "rebound".
Your stop can be super tight. For example, EURUSD
important resistance 1.0840 is broken and a quick
move to 1.0860, followed by a decline to 1.0835.
Buy with a 1.0820 stop. The move back down is
natural and takes nothing away from the
importance of the breakout. However, EURUSD
should not decline significantly below the
breakout (breakout 1.0840; EURUSD should not go
below 1.0825.
- After a prolonged up move when a top has been
made there is usually a trading range, followed
by a sharp decline. After that, a secondary
reaction back near the old highs often occurs.
This is because the market gets ahead of itself
and a short squeeze occurs. Selling near the old
top with a stop above the old top is the safest
place to sell.
- The third lower top is also a great place to sell.
- The same is true in reverse for down moves.
- Be careful not to buy near top or sell near
bottom within trading ranges. Wait for breakaway
(huge profit potential) or play the range.
- Whether the market is very active or in a trading
range, all indications are more accurate and
trustworthier when the market is actively trading.
Limitations of Charts
Scheduled economic announcements that are complete
surprises render nearby short-term support and resistance
levels meaningless because the basis (all available
information) has changed significantly, requiring a price
adjustment to reflect the new information. Other support
and resistance levels within the normal daily trading
range remain valid. For example, on Friday the
unemployment number missed the mark by roughly 120,000
jobs. That's a huge disparity and rendered all nearby
resistance levels in the EURUSD meaningless. However,
resistance level 200 points or more from the day's
opening were still meaningful because they represented
resistance to a big up move on a given day.
Unscheduled or unexpected statements by government
officials may render all charts points on a short-term
chart meaningless, depending upon the severity of what
was said or implied. For example, when Treasury Secretary
John Snow hinted that the U.S. had abandoned its strong U.S.
dollar policy.
Article Source: About
Forex (http://www.about-forex.biz)
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